Benissan Barrigah – edited by PACT
With over 2 billion viewers worldwide, the recent Africa Cup of Nations was a true global phenomenon, captivating attention across the globe. Far more than just a sporting event, this resounding success around the round ball could well reflect a major demographic shift that has been taking place on the African continent for several years now.
Over the past few decades, Africa has undergone a major demographic transition, marked by a significant decrease in infant mortality rates and an increase in life expectancy. This dynamic, coupled with some of the highest fertility rates in the world, has propelled the continent to the rank of the second most populous region on the planet, with a current population exceeding 1.4 billion inhabitants. Since the early 2000s, the annual population growth rate on the continent has stood at 2.4%.
Current projections suggest that by 2050, Africa’s population will approach 2.5 billion, representing a quarter of the world’s population. By the end of the century, this figure is expected to soar, with Africans making up more than 40% of the global population.
Yes, we can say the World is becoming more African.
The implications of this growth go far beyond mere numbers. The continent’s demographic transition, coupled with an expanding working-age population, opens a critical window of opportunity – a potential ‘demographic dividend’ which, if harnessed, could fuel unprecedented economic growth and development across the continent.
Indeed, with an economy mainly focused on agriculture, industry, and services in the majority. This upcoming demographic boom could have several major impacts on African markets:
- Expansion of Consumer Markets
The projected increase in the continent’s population corresponds to expanding consumer markets with considerable implications.
These demographic changes could also serve as catalysts for a transformative economic paradigm, in which the local processing of raw materials would gain momentum, reducing dependence on imports for finished products. This shift promises not only increased self-sufficiency but also a strengthening of regional market integration, supported by the demographic weight expected to reach 2.5 billion people by 2050.
This numerical increase in population heralds a significant expansion of existing markets, accompanied by a diversification of needs – stimulating the creation of new market niches.
According to a recent McKinsey study, by 2030, an identified group of African companies could increase their collective annual revenues by more than half of $1 trillion, an increase of over $550 billion, by accessing new markets and increasing their productivity.
- Urbanization Trend
Materially, the continent is on the cusp of an urban revolution. By 2030, Africa is expected to be home to more than 90 cities with populations exceeding one million, and at least 17 megacities each housing over 5 million inhabitants. This urban sprawl is expected to catalyze the proliferation of SMEs, encourage local champions, and attract both private and public foreign direct investment (FDI). Like the booming metropolises of Lagos and Cairo, the rise of large cities could significantly stimulate innovation and business creation.
These urban giants are crucibles of innovation, dynamism, foreign investment, and technology hubs that could change economic dependencies on external ecosystems in favor of greater autonomy.
- Workforce and Talent Pool Growth
The expected population boom and the consequent increase in the labor force would be essential for Africa’s economic future. Africa, which is currently experiencing rapid population growth and whose projections suggest a population of nearly 3.1 billion by 2063, is on the verge of reaping a significant demographic dividend. This rapidly growing young population holds promises of economic development and innovation. As the workforce increases, the continent’s ability to harness this demographic change could significantly influence its economic trajectory.
According to an IMF study, a one percentage point increase in the working-age population can increase real GDP per capita growth by 0.5 percentage points, with variations across regions. This finding underscores the profound economic and social potential associated with population growth.
With a median age of around 19 in 2021, Africa’s young population is a reservoir of economic opportunities in many ways. In this “aging” world, the continent’s young and rapidly growing workforce represents an important source of talent; nearly 796 million people will join the labor force by 2050, and Africa’s workforce will soon be larger than China’s or India’s.
However, in reality, several factors prevent the full realization of this demographic dividend; in the remainder of our article, we will shed light on two major challenges: education and the employability of youth in Africa.
Challenge 1 – Education
The rapid population growth that Africa is experiencing raises with renewed urgency the crucial question of the quality of education on the continent.
In light of available data, it is clear that educational systems in the region are struggling to keep up with this demographic transition.
According to the datas obtained:
- Nearly 98 million school-age children in sub-Saharan Africa do not attend school.
- 60% of young people aged 15 to 17 are denied access to education.
- One in five children of primary school age does not have access to it.
- Nearly 90% of children do not acquire basic reading and comprehension skills before the age of 10.
- Girls are still more likely than boys never to attend school.
This lag in the education system can be explained by a combination of factors, ranging from household poverty to armed conflicts, insufficient school infrastructure in many regions, and poor governance.
In the next 50 years, this youth, which is nevertheless Africa’s main asset, could become its Achilles’ heel. Overwhelming, because without quality education, African youth are deprived of a fundamental right and the tools needed to build and face the future.
We will certainly not say it enough: efficiently investing in education would improve the quality of life of populations, equip a workforce capable of meeting local and global needs, present and future. It would also ensure greater gender equality, greater political stability and better governance models, with education being seen as one of the main foundations of peace and stability, particularly in regions of Africa where armed conflicts and political instability prevail.
Education creates wealth; it should be more than welcome in our rather poor ecosystems.
It is thus more than crucial to strengthen educational systems to prepare youth to contribute effectively to society. This would require, among other things, significant investments, concerted action by governments, policymakers and international partners, and active involvement of civil society.
However, education, as essential as it may be, does not alone guarantee sufficient employability.
Challenge 2 – (Un)Employment
Although a significant step forward, meeting the education challenge would certainly not be enough. The other major issue we wish to address is the creation of jobs for Africa’s young and dynamic population.
As we have observed through the various datas, the continent has a reservoir of talent essential to its economic and social development.
Yet the reality of the job market seems far removed from this promising potential:
- About 72 million young Africans (aged 15 to 29) are not in employment, education or training (NEET).
- 1 in 3 young women in sub-Saharan Africa is unemployed, not in education or training
- One-third of young people aged 15 to 35 are unemployed and discouraged, while another third hold precarious jobs. Only one in six young people has a salaried job.
- For every 10 to 12 million young people entering the labor market each year, only 3.1 million jobs are created.
These figures attest to a painful and pernicious reality. In reality, this situation manifests itself through lower living conditions, fuels migration out of Africa, and contributes to internal conflicts through increasing inequalities.
Moreover, these high unemployment rates have a direct and often cyclical effect on low levels of education, with household poverty largely leading to significant dropout rates, short-term survival taking priority over longer-term educational investments.
This youth unemployment is primarily a failure to capitalize on one of the continent’s greatest assets for growth: its young and rapidly expanding population.
In essence, it is difficult to envision a better future when the present for young people is so uncertain.
The rapid population growth expected in Africa is so far at odds with its current high levels of unemployment and low rates of access to adequate education, to name just these factors.
It might be unwise to think/believe that future population growth would naturally provide solutions to current problems, often inherent in our ecosystems.
This reality also highlights the urgency of immediate action (in our case) to review and improve education systems and invest significantly in education (and health), create jobs, and encourage entrepreneurship and innovation, in order to establish solid foundations that could enable sustainable harnessing of this demographic boom.
Without such proactive measures, the gap between today’s inaction and tomorrow’s expectations could leave the continent ill-prepared to transform its population expansion into real economic and social prosperity.
The continent’s ability to adapt to this demographic change represents a strategic opportunity that requires meticulous planning and coordinated implementation of various economic and social development policies. The decisions made today to nurture, educate and engage the next generation of workers will define the continent’s economic trajectory.
This pivotal moment offers Africans a chance to redefine their economic and social landscape for decades to come by leveraging, for once, a demographic advantage in order to drastically reduce poverty; foster growth, innovation and competitiveness in regional and global markets.
In the meantime, however, until the political agenda of governments and key stakeholders is put in place, a gradual involvement of civil society and individuals and organizations from the continent would also be welcome.
Unlike some sectors requiring sophisticated means and techniques, human capital development has the advantage of being more “accessible” to citizen initiatives.
The promising future of Africa inherently rests on its invaluable human capital.
This incredible human potential, if adequately trained, valued and supported, represents the key for the continent to overcome the challenges it faces and rise towards sustainable and inclusive development.
Time to act is now.